How does Trump's Impeachment Affect wealth?

How does Trump’s impeachment affect Wealth

December 18, 2019 was a historical day. Almost everyone waited with baited breath for the results of the Trump impeachment process. Suddenly, the votes were in and the word of the day was Impeachment. Half of the country screamed in celebration and the other half roared in fury.

Speculation had been mounting for his entire presidency surrounding what might happen if Donald J Trump were impeached. Some of his most fanatical supporters vowed to start a civil war. But the real question is, how does it affect the average American citizen, economically? And all politics aside…does it affect us at all?

Trump's impeachment

The House of representatives held a vote on whether to pass 2 articles of impeachment. One for abuse of power, and the other for obstruction of justice. The charges were levied against him because Trump allegedly withheld critical aid from the Ukraine with the intention of forcing them to investigate Joe Biden’s son Hunter. A few days before the vote took place, the House Judiciary Committee specified that Criminal Bribery and Wire Fraud were part of the abuse of power charges.

Votes from the House of Representatives
Accusation	Abuse of power
Votes in favor	230
Votes against	197
Present	1
Not voting	3
Result	Approved
Accusation	Obstruction of Congress
Votes in favor	229
Votes against	198
Present	1
Not voting	3
Result	Approved

But people forget that almost exactly 2 years prior, articles of impeachment were raised again. That time, the articles of impeachment were “Associating the Presidency with White Nationalism, Neo-Nazism and Hatred” and “Inciting Hatred and Hostility”. The house voted 364-58 to defeat the articles and the matter was squelched.

A brief history of presidents impeached

Donald trump is only the 3^rd president to be impeached.

In May 1868, Andrew Johnson was impeached on 11 articles of impeachment. He had taken over office from Abraham Lincoln and was trying to halt the progress that was to follow the freeing of the slaves. To combat Johnson, The 14th and 15th amendments to the constitution as well as the Tenure of Office Act passed into law. The House of Representatives voted 126 to 47 to impeach Johnson.

Votes from the House of Representatives
Votes in favor	126
Votes against	47
Result	Approved

In December of 1998 (130 years later), Bill Clinton was impeached for perjury and obstruction of justice following the results of his testimony about his affair with Monica Lewinsky.

Votes from the House of Representatives
Accusation	Perjury
Votes in favor	228
Votes against	206
Result	Approved
Accusation	Obstruction of justice
Votes in favor	221
Votes against	212
Result	Approved

But both were acquitted after a trial by the Senate and allowed to remain in office to finish their terms.

Andrew Johnson

Seen to be the most racist and worst president to ever hold the office. At every turn Johnson tried to make sure that the freed slaves were not allowed to vote, could not be protected equally under the law, and allowed the passing of the Black Codes/Slave Codes. It was during Johnson’s Presidency that the rise of KKK is noted.

Once the 14th amendment passed, using the word “male” for the first time, the feminist movement changed. Feeling deliberately left out, anger was expressed over the lack of consideration taken for female equality.

The stock market did take a small dip when Johnson was impeached. And notably, the market rose in value 6% just a few months after Johnson was acquitted in the Senate.

Bill Clinton

The Stock market rose 39% during Bill Clinton’s impeachment process. Before during, and after he was acquitted in the senate. But the market value dropped 33% during Nixon’s impeachment process (though he resigned before he was impeached).

The stock market’s rise during Clinton’s drama is attributed to actions of the Federal Reserve, who cut interest rates at that time. The decline in the stock market during Nixon’s era is attached to the economic recession that was happening at the time.

So we realize, the volatility of the stock market is closely related to economic ups and downs, the federal reserve, and trade. And not so much about the office of the president.

The Next steps

The impeachment is only the beginning of the process. Following an impeachment, the president is stripped of his power until a trial is concluded. The trial is held by the senate. And news flash. Republicans hold a majority in the senate and with their staunch support of Trump, are highly unlikely to vote to remove him from office. Een made more unlikely because no sitting president has ever been removed by the Senate after being impeached. Political pundits give Trump a 20% chance of removal.

Do politics affect our wealth in general?

In the grand scheme of things, politics affect our everyday lives. Which isn’t always a bad thing. As it stands, had Abraham not been elected, the emancipation proclamation might not have been created at that time, if ever.

Trade embargos with other countries usually slow that countries economic progress as well as limit American small businesses’ abilities to have competitive access to international trade as well as imports and exports. This trickles down to higher prices for the individual consumer.

Stocks

The question is, how will Trump’s impeachment and possible removal affect us? We know the stock market has the biggest chance of being affected by major upheavals. But that isn’t necessarily due to an impeachment. It’s about the things an impeachment may herald. Some investors may worry that the Us-Medico_Canada trade agreement won’t go through if Trump is removed from office. And what will happen with our dealings with China? Will we reach a trade deal, sooner or later with a different president?

Real estate

The current political climate has had no effect on the real estate market so far. The option for that to change may come in the 2020 Presidential election. And here’s why.

If we receive a new president in 2020 who repeals the currently increased tariffs on imported goods from China, then the cost of construction will be substantially lowered, which will affect the cost of houses. So apparently, the real estate market potentially could be affected positively by the removal of our sitting president.

Tariffs and trades

There is some question about how a potential removal of office would affect the not-yet-ratified US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The USMCA is the replacement of the NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement. This new replacement is supposed to strengthen all 3 countries manufacturing market. The noticeable parts are the clauses that agree that 75% of automotive components are to be manufactured in Mexico. Also, the US is allowed to export to Canada up to 3.6% of it’s dairy market (up from 1% previously). That allows for more dairy farmers in the US to sell to Canada.

It is impossible to know whether a new president would attempt to veto the agreement, or pull out within 6 months(which is allowed according to the Agreement).

Small business

As stated before, there are many factors that affect the stability of any given market. The particulars of the presidents case to outwardly change anything. But the outcome may be affected in other ways. Small businesses that revolve around the housing market, may be positively affected by the removal of the president “if” the tariffs on construction goods from China are removed.

Small businesses that rely upon imports and exports to Canada and Mexico may be affected negatively with the removal of Trump while other businesses that rely upon imports and exports from China may be positively affected.

Conclusions

To understand what affects our markets, takes study. No one man can break our economy, we have checks and balances to avoid that. There is always an IFTT situation (If this then that).

Wealth

How does Trump’s Impeachment Affect wealth?

Trump's impeachment